Saturday, January 31, 2009

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Reflections on the crisis of Keynesian policy and similarities ...

Keynes's theory allowed the Western economies get out of the long depression of the '30s. In the postwar Keynesian policies, however, began to show the first signs of crisis due to the growth of public spending. Governments endorsed the support to domestic demand with ease but was not as willing to cut it. Social forces, trade unions, companies and public operators themselves pressed for maintaining the status quo. Therefore, public spending was inflexible down and lost the initial function of offset during periods of economic crisis to turn into a heavy cost of constant voice in the public accounts. On the one hand, it created new problems in public finance to seek media coverage of public expenditure (increase taxes, borrowing, issuing of currency). The other, the pressure of public spending in periods of expansion caused a push towards inflationary.
In the '70s, inflation had become the new problem of modern capitalist economies. The phenomenon became known and marked, especially during the external shocks in oil prices. Economic systems showed themselves incapable of controlling inflation in the prices and the effects were accentuated on the whole society. In this period, the Keynesian theory suffered strong criticism both in academic and political as well until it was replaced by the emerging theory monetarist Milton Friedman that could better explain the economic phenomena of the '70s.

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The economic theory of Keynes

General Theory of Keynes was the beginning of a new theoretical approach to the analysis of economic phenomena and economic policy. In Keynes's theory it is assumed the presence of an underemployment equilibrium in which the income is entirely spent and invested. Draw a diagram on the horizontal axis and income on consumer spending on C and investment I ordered. The 45 ° diagonal (gray) identify the points of equilibrium in which the income is entirely spent on consumption and investment (Y = C + I).
Only one of the points on the diagonal is compatible with the full employment income (the point "e"). The reality, Keynes noted, however, shows how the protracted situations of underemployment equilibrium "s" (red) in which only part of the Y resources are actually used in the production of income. The rest remain unemployed because of weak domestic demand. To Keynes's private investment are constant in the short term.
Keynes proposed to support demand through public intervention. Thus investment spending would have shifted the demand function upward, bringing the balance of the economy towards full employment. The graph just given the public expenditure on investment allows the passage of underemployment equilibrium "S" (red) to balance "k" (black), and closer to full employment "and".
policy keynesianarichiedeva therefore public intervention on the question to leave the Empire underemployment. The expenditure also guaranteed " multiplier effects " by the famous mechanism of public expenditure multiplier that any intervention generated more than proportional benefits to the expense.
The Keynesian moltilpicatore
The entire Keynesian theory is based on a particular hypothesis in the consumption function: constant considered private investment, consumption spending is determined To be an autonomous, independent income, and earnings-related part by the propensity to consume of individuals "c".
C = A + CY
The individual uses only part of its income on consumer spending. For example, 80% of income spent on consumption while the remainder is put in savings. The costs in turn determine the income of other individuals who, in turn, it will allocate a part in fuel consumption and the rest in savings, and so on. In practice, any increase in income or variable components creates a "multiplier effect" to the increase in spending over the original. The phenomenon is represented in the "Keynesian multiplier", as we see construction;
Y = C = A + IY + I + CY
Y (1-c) = A + I
Y = 1 / (1-c) * (A + I)
The Keynesian multiplier is therefore 1 / ( 1-c). For a marginal propensity to consume of 0.8 (80%), the multiplier will assume a value of 5. In fact, k = 1 / (1-c), since there will be k = 0.8 c = 1 / (1-.8) = 1 / 0, 2 = 5. The economic multiplier is clear: any increase in spending or investing in the C generates an increase in national income five times the initial spending. The additional expenditure, in fact, cause cascading effects in the incomes of most individuals.

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Sometimes seizures return, the recipe and the birth of Keynesian policies.

Depression of the '30s led to a period of great uncertainty in world economies. Confidence in the market sing praises from neoclassical theories was accusing a blow to the heart of the system. On the other hand, socialism had found his first appearance by the Russian Revolution and the centrally planned economy. The Western response could not be done using the same cultural baggage of the past nor depart from it too. With the crisis of '29 capitalism had gone up in the dock of history.
Keynes's theory was chosen as the official response to the states of Western economic theory of crisis and depression. For the first time spread the belief in a system Economic hit by periodic crises. The economic recessions alternated with those of depression, the economy could not, therefore, to ensure full employment. According to Keynes the system found its impasse in the investment industry. The price of bonds is inversely related to money market interest: P = V / i
short-term investments were consistent. Individuals could use their savings mainly by buying securities. In the situation where interest rates are low investors begin to expect a future rise in interest rates and lower bond prices. Will therefore tend not to buy new titles and holding money. The preference liquidity throws the system into a long depression, the phenomenon is also called "liquidity trap".
As mentioned earlier, Keynes took a little variable and constant investment in the short term. The savings were therefore subject to stable equilibrium of underemployment to exit from which it was necessary for public intervention to boost demand. She was born the 'Keynesian policy' and the lever of public spending became a sort of panacea to the ills of economic depression and underemployment of resources.

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real difficulties of companies to pay taxes

There are "real difficulties" for firms to pay their taxes. This was underlined by the Director of Revenue, Attilio Befera, during a hearing at the Parliamentary Supervisory sull'Anagrafe Tax Commission, chaired by Maurizio Leo. Many taxpayers who receive the tax notice resort to rescheduling: Currently, Befera said, amounted to 3 billion for which taxes have been granted in installments. "And this is an advantage for taxpayers in trouble - said Befera - but also the administration that would otherwise enable enforcement procedures." With the economic crisis, said the Director of Revenue, "the fight against tax evasion should be slightly larger because we are at a significant moment of crisis. It is therefore necessary to ensure sufficient levels of revenue. " Befera also stated that "the quality of the investigation will be greater, not only will go in the direction of the small or medium but to all" and that you are carrying out operations for regional study areas at highest risk of evasion divided by area. The Revenue Agency is refining "various tools to lead to a higher quality of the investigation." The goal, explains Befera, "is to make a fight against tax evasion, but do not kill companies."
of Nicoletta Cottone

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

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